Changing job trends: how transition towards a green, digital economy will impact European employment

Jobs in Europe are set to change quickly in coming years, as the EU aims to cut carbon emissions fast while moving to a digital-first economy. The EU target is for 55% lower carbon emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. If achieved, Europe is set to be the first climate neutral continent, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said – with demand for new highly-skilled jobs in emerging green industries, while sectors such as oil, gas, and agriculture will have smaller workforces.

A third, demographic, transition is taking place at the same time. An ageing workforce is not being replaced at the same rate by younger workers who now spend more years in education, according to the 2023 Skills in Transition: the way to 2035 report fromCedefop (The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training). It is therefore important to raise participation among medium-skilled workers, especially women, to fill vacancies.

“Europe is at a turning point,” say Jürgen Siebel, Cedefop executive director, and Antonio Ranieri, head of department for VET (vocational education and training) and skills, writing in the Skills in Transition report. “The unfolding climate emergency, the digital revolution, geo-political tensions and cost-of-living crises fundamentally challenge the economic and social fabric of countries, economic sectors and communities.” They add: “While it is becoming more difficult to foresee what changes lie ahead, it is increasingly obvious that the policy implementation choices we make this decade will determine what the future will look like.”

Siebel and Ranieri see shortages in labour and skills especially in sectors including such as construction, care and IT – as well as a shortage of quality jobs that offer both decent working conditions and opportunities to use skills. But as yet, they say, uptake for retraining is low, despite its “enormous potential.”

Moving to a green economy

The expansion of digital and green jobs strategies is expected to mean growth for industries including renewable energy and manufacturing – as the production of products including semiconductors, rare earth metals and medical supplies moves closer to the point of use, the Skills in Transition report suggests.

Training to help workers in declining sectors and regions will be important, suggests the report, to improve skills for the green transition. Highly-skilled workers, such as R&D scientists who invent green solutions, will require the support of technicians who implement them.

Digital skills

A more sustainable economy will be supported by high-tech jobs. Cedefop forecasts a strong growth in ICT professional roles up to 2035, although it expects some digital employment will decline as more automation is introduced. Recruitment is expected to be challenging both because of the difficulty of upskilling those in medium- and low-level roles who are now required to have more digital skills, and in the case that not enough young people have the qualifications required for the most highly-skilled roles.

Long-term solutions

A long-term plan bringing together education, training with labour market policies that invest in digital and STEM skills and champions VET.
Engaging and empowering local and national employers and policymakers around digital and green transitions.
Forecasting future skills needs and understanding existing skills shortages.

Find out more about the direction of employment within the EU in Skills in Transition: the way to 2035, a Cedefop report.

Related links:

Skills in Transition: the way to 2035

The European Green Deal

The EC Green Industrial Plan

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